How much is luck involved in a hiring process?
The hiring process can be gruesome and unfair. Unfortunately not always the best or the most fit gets hired. Sometimes even no one gets hired. This is a game where we have a lot of factors involved, and most of them are external and invisible. Is there any hope? I think there is.
The question I am planning to explore is luck. If I know my stuff and perform an awesome interview (using my silver tongue) I should get hired right? It’s a no-brainer. Sadly is not the case. Let’s walk through the different phases, discuss how luck is involved and how you can minimize the need for it.
Before we jump into the task at hand. I simplified the process to make the analysis easier. Some hiring processes might be more complex but with this simplified version you’ll get the gist of it. I’ll put in () how much luck I believe is involved. Treat this as a guideline, as they say: your mileage may vary.
- Creating your CV (Low): Here you only have one human involved: you. Fewer humans, less luck involved. Your input should be the job posting and your base CV. Your output should be a tailored CV. If you don’t tailor your CV for the different job postings, you might want to revisit that. Tailoring your CV can minimize the luck involved.
- Sending your CV to a recruiter (Medium): Now luck is starting to mess with our process. The source of where the recruiter gets your CV can have a big impact on your end result. Did you apply to the company site? Did they find you on LinkedIn? Or, best of all, did you were referred by someone already working in the company? Being referred could help you bypass the recruiter and minimize the luck involved. Recruiters read a ton of CVs per day, they reject some and pass some. They have a mental image of what they are looking for and a quota to fill. They do not perform the job they are judging.
- The hiring manager takes a look at your resume and decides if it wants to interview (Medium): The hiring manager should know what they need and what someone needs to succeed in the role. They know their team and what they are looking for. Luck creeps based on the rush factor. They might be in a huge rush to onboard someone or they might have enough time to decide. There is a linear correlation between time to make a decision and pickiness. You can’t control the rush, not a lot to do here. If you have insider information from friends working on the team, you could adjust your expectations.
- Interview or multiple interviews happens (High): Interviewing is performance art. Is a delicate balance between not getting nervous and being able to showcase all the things you have done in the past. Luck will vary depending on who interviews you. We tend to have a different vibe with different people. You need to also factor in the internal state of the interviewer (happy, angry, worried…). Not much to do here, you can’t pick your interviewers or ask for a change mid-process. Bring your A-game and keep smiling.
- The hiring manager shares feedback to other people involved (High): Luck will show how good is the hiring manager explaining why they need you. How much influence do they have on the organization? How many enemies do they have? You might get rejected because somebody hates the people who are rooting for you. It won’t have to do anything with you, just internal politics. Depending on who referred you and the tightness of the process, they might chime in, but not always. You won’t hear these conversations and won’t be able to talk, just wait and see.
- The company sends an offer (High): How can this be high? We are almost done, right? Everything can fall here for external reasons to your process. Maybe the project that needed you is cutting on people? Maybe the new project you were going to be onboarded fell through? During COVID I saw companies from we need 30 new engineers to we need to do some layoffs. These reasons could avoid the company from sending you an offer. These are external circumstances outside of your control.
- You negotiate the offer (Medium): All negotiations can get tricky. You are asking for X and they say Y. People are not rational and this shows a lot in negotiations. One way to minimize luck here is to accept fast what they are offering, but that has a further implication. Again a game of delicate balance.
- You accept the offer (Low): The process can still go south. You just have to say yes, but it’s not a deal until you have your company laptop
Thanks a lot for reading so far. As you could see, luck is everywhere and sometimes we can minimize it, sometimes we can't. Next time you get rejected (I know, it sucks) remember that you don’t know the actual reason and they can’t tell you for legal reasons.
If you’ve come so far this down you might be interested in learning more. I created this course that can help you.
